Hurricane Dorian’s slow pace makes it dangerous and hard to predict


Hurricane Dorian has been a
slow, near-record-breaking, rough beast of a storm. After more than 24 hours of
hovering over the northern Bahamas and pummeling the islands with wind, rain
and surging seas, Dorian finally got moving again on September 3. It slouched
northward toward the U.S. coast as a category 2 hurricane, with sustained winds
of about 177 kilometers per hour (110 miles per hour).

The second-strongest
Atlantic hurricane on record (and strongest outside the tropics), Dorian made
landfall in the Bahamas on September 1 as a powerful category 5 storm, with
sustained winds of about 298 kilometers per hour (185 miles per hour). The
hurricane’s fury was dangerous enough, but then it practically stopped — shifting a mere 40 kilometers as it churned over the
Caribbean nation. That’s the second slowest trek for an Atlantic hurricane
after 1965’s Hurricane Betsy, a category 4 storm. That snail’s pace has stymied
forecasters trying to determine the storm’s path as it heads toward the United

Dorian’s slog makes it one
of several strong but lethargic cyclones in recent decades, a trend that includes
2017’s Hurricane Harvey (SN: 9/28/18), 2018’s Hurricane Florence (SN: 9/13/18) and Cyclone
Idai, which struck Mozambique in March. In fact, over the last 70 years, cyclones
around the globe have been slowing down, James Kossin, a climate scientist with the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who is based in Madison, Wisc.,
found in 2018 (SN: 6/6/18).

Stalled-out cyclones mean more extreme rainfall — and significantly increased hazard for coastal
populations lying in the storms’ paths. That was true for both Harvey and
Florence, Kossin and climate scientist Timothy Hall of NASA Goddard Institute
for Space Studies in New York City reported in June in Climate and Atmospheric Science. So far, in some parts of the
Bahamas, Dorian’s rainfall exceeded 61 centimeters (two feet), according to
NASA’s satellite-based estimates released September 3.

Dorian’s storm surge and rainfall left much of Grand Bahama Island underwater by 11:44 AM EDT on September 2. This satellite image shows flooding due to Dorian’s storm surge and heavy rainfall (yellow lines indicate the island’s outline).ICEYE

Hall talked to Science News about Dorian’s stall and
what scientists can and can’t say about linking slowed storms to climate change.
The interview is edited for brevity and clarity.

SN: What does it mean for a storm to

Hall: In the case of Dorian, it basically came to a complete standstill. It’s only now just edging northwestward from that.

Hurricanes are like corks
floating on a stream — their paths are determined by the large-scale wind
fields in which they sit. When those wind fields collapse temporarily, like
they did for Dorian and did for Harvey in 2017, the hurricane doesn’t have any
guidance. It just stalls until a new set of wind fields is in place.

The National Hurricane
Center posts storm characteristics every six hours. [In our paper], we defined meandering
as an abrupt change in direction from one six-hour time step to the next. If
the center of the storm spends at least 48 hours within a 200-kilometer radius,
we called it a stall. We just did an unofficial analysis of Dorian and it was
clearly a stall by that definition.

SN: Is there a link between stalling and climate

Hall: [As far as what] we know about climate change and hurricanes, some things are virtually certain. Rising sea levels are leading to more coastal flooding, for sure. And increased rainfall is a pretty robust projection from changing climate. There’s a strong consensus now in the community that the intensity of tropical cyclones is getting stronger.

Then we get to the things
that are less well-known, but are still important to consider for hazards. One
is how climate change might be affecting the path that hurricanes take, which
would include the propensity to stall. One of the obvious suspects is that in a
warmer climate, the large-scale wind patterns in the atmosphere may slow down.
It’s very hard to tease out that signal from direct observations. It’s really
at the edge of what we understand right now.

SN: You also found that stalling
hurricanes mean more heavy rains.

Hall: Yes. One of the things you can say for Harvey, for example, is that aside from the stalling that Harvey did, there was so much rainfall that was driven by waters in the Gulf of Mexico that were extremely warm. Something like between 10 and 25 percent of the rain that fell on Houston could be attributed to human-induced warming (SN: 12/14/17). And for Dorian, the waters were very warm in the region where it stalled as well, a couple of degrees above the climatological mean for this time of year.  Future [climate change] attribution studies might encompass that (SN: 12/11/18).

woman carrying dog in Bahamas
Julia Aylen carries her dog as she wades through waist-deep water during a rescue from her flooded home in Freeport, Bahamas, on September 3.Tim Aylen/AP

SN: What’s the takeaway for now?

Hall:  I’m glad that people are talking about stalling as an additional feature in the hazards of tropical cyclones. It just highlights how, yes, category is important, but it’s not the be-all, end-all of a storm’s hazard. There’s the physical size of the storm, how it moves, the angle at which it impacts the coastline — all of which are going to have an effect on storm surge and flooding.

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Originally posted by: Carolyn Gramling


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